Lowering the threshold (again)

Just a quick followup: I blogged earlier that with the provisional results, setting the threshold to .83% of the vote would not have impacted which party formed a governing coalition nor which partners were involved. With the final results that no longer holds true. We see that if all the MMP parties had won electorate seats, (which in practice results in the same thing) parliament would probably have been deadlocked. Labour would have needed every smaller party but Act in order to form a government, and would have had difficulty negotiating a policy platform which all five partners could agree to.

National would also have had a bit more difficulty under such a system, losing the ability to govern without the Mäori Party. (Unless it broke its promise on working with Winston, or Winston committed to abstaining on confidence and supply) This could have resulted in a much more interesting government, with the ability for National to swing left on issues where it could work with the Greens, with the Mäori Party moderating its more conservative policies while National worked with Act.

(The exact results would be:
National: 55 MPs
Labour: 42 MPs
Greens: 8 MPs
ACT: 5 MPs
Mäori Party: 5 MPs
New Zealand First: 5 MPs
Progressives: 1 MP
United Future: 1 MP
Total: 122 MPs)

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2 thoughts on “Lowering the threshold (again)

  1. Nice analysis, Ari. Whereas, such a result would have bound to create a rather protracted set of negotiations, it is fair to say that it reflects the current mood of the country more accurately.
    It is still more likely that a National led government would have been the eventual outcome. However, the influence of Act would be most likely more diminished and the Maori Party would have to be very cognisant of its left-leaning members.
    Certainly, every voice in such a parliament would carry a fair amount of weight whether it be in government or from the opposition parties. The overall effect would either be a snap election or a government that didn’t stray too far from the basis set by the previous administration.

  2. It is still more likely that a National led government would have been the eventual outcome.

    I’d go further than that: Labour leading a government under those sorts of results would be a shambles and a practically impossible proposition.

    Personally speaking I don’t think snap election would be very likely, as National would realise that such a proposition needed to be very carefully avoided and was not in their interests.

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