The very last poll before the one that really counts

The last opinion poll before the election has been released this afternoon.

The Roy Morgan poll puts the Greens at 10% (yes!!!).

But more interesting is the polling overall:

National: 42%
ACT: 4%
Labour: 34.5%.
Green: 10%

That puts the National/ACT axis at 46%, and the Green-Labour proposed alliance at 44.5%. And the rats and mice like Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton, who will get no-one else elected on their party lists, make up one vote on each side.

1.5% the difference: too close to call, I’d say!

Incidentally, there have been 5 polls released in the last two days. The Green support is:

Roy Morgan: 10%
TV3/TNS: 9%
OneNews/Colmar Brunton: 9%
Fairfax: 8%
Herald Digipoll: 5.9%

Someone has their polling methodology wrong. Is it the four polling organisations that rate the Greens at 8% or better, or is it the one that rates them considerably lower?

I guess tomorrow night will tell, but for the moment I’m hoping that 4 of 5 have got it right.

[Edit: Oh , and here's Tane's lovely pie-chart from The Standard. I really must learn how to do these myself once the election is over]:

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7 thoughts on “The very last poll before the one that really counts

  1. 3 Poll

    Which political party will get your vote on Saturday?
    The Greens 11%
    National 35%
    Labour 40%
    ACT 6%
    NZ First 4%
    Other 4%

    Looks good Sarah, but this is an internet poll that people who find the link to decide whether to respond to or not.

    It has no statistical validity.

    Mind you, right now, it is the message I want to hear!

  2. Thanks Ari. I’m aged over 50, which is probably why I thought it was too much bother to work it out. And I knew Tane always followed them up promptly with a pie-chart anyway.

    But I do know (at least vaguely) how MSExcel’s graphing function works.

    I have to say, however much I hate Microsoft, and however much shit their other applications are, Excel is just so good, and nothing else on the market comes close to matching it.

    Which, I guess, along with their dubious marketing and software packaging, is how they retain their market share – one superb application that can drag the less auspicious efforts along behind it.

    Shit, this thread was meant to be about elections. Sorry to have hijacked my own thread, But (ironically) I really love Excel, but really hate Micrsoft generally, so had to say it.

  3. K, if I’ve done this right, that’s what it should look like. :)

    As for elections- Well, if we keep up that sort of result on Polling Day, Gareth would get in :D

  4. I’m going to sleep tonite, with “11%” very firmly held in my mind.
    Let’s see if that works for real. :-)

    Then you can decide which kind of witch I am, numerate or innumerate, and plan the bonfire accordingly…

    Ok, I’m a little flippantly over today, but it was grand.
    Aren’t we all such great people? I’ve spent time with some young’uns today who have really made me feel happy about the future, no matter what goes into the mix tomorrow, and that’s a lovely feeling to go to bed on ;-)

  5. Bed at 8:15pm anarkaytie!!!

    Go girl – you must have someone special!

    Not even dreams about 11% excuse that otherwise.

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